MISCHIEFS OF FACTION

Reflections on Parties and Their Place in Politics

Four things that could still affect the presidential race but probably won't

Seth Masket

Sep 21, 20204 min read

Four things that could still affect the presidential race but probably won't

Could the economy, a vaccine, debates, or a SCOTUS nomination change the race? Maybe, but don't count on it.

Want to take a shot at running for president? Try playing this board game.

Matthew Green

Sep 10, 20204 min read

Want to take a shot at running for president? Try playing this board game.

1960: The Making of the President teaches some timeless lessons about modern campaign tactics and strategy.

Seth Masket

Aug 24, 20204 min read

The Party Abides

The Republican Party concedes that reelecting Trump is not just its chief goal, but its only goal

Do Really, Really Bad GDP Numbers Mean a Really, Really Bad November for Trump? Well...

Seth Masket

Jul 30, 20204 min read

Do Really, Really Bad GDP Numbers Mean a Really, Really Bad November for Trump? Well...

The economy shrank by 9.5 points in the 2nd quarter. That's really bad, but can we forecast the vote from it?

The Awkward Coalition of Democrats and Lincoln Project Conservatives

Seth Masket

Jul 28, 20203 min read

The Awkward Coalition of Democrats and Lincoln Project Conservatives

Coalitions are inherently unwieldy, ugly, unstable, and unsatisfying. They're also effective.

Two Things the Trump Team is Sort of Getting Right

Seth Masket

Jul 20, 20204 min read

Two Things the Trump Team is Sort of Getting Right

The Trump campaign is playing a bad hand reasonably well.

The Supreme Court reminded us that the Electoral College doesn't deliberate

Seth Masket

Jul 6, 20203 min read

The Supreme Court reminded us that the Electoral College doesn't deliberate

The Court's decision makes clear that the Electoral College doesn't deliberate - it exists to give some states a representational advantage

Surprise, the better-known candidate with more money and party backing won despite gaffes

Seth Masket

Jun 30, 20203 min read

Surprise, the better-known candidate with more money and party backing won despite gaffes

Hickenlooper had the edge on the fundamentals, but Romanoff was the better campaigner. Guess which mattered more.

The Staff

Jun 23, 20205 min read

Biden’s VP Selection is Unlikely to Have Much of an Effect on the Dynamics of the Race

Should Joe Biden choose Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren as his VP? New polling suggests neither has a strong effect on voters' choices.

Seth Masket

Jun 4, 20204 min read

In Defense of (Good) Photo Ops

A good photo op has important symbolic value and can be empowering. Trump's Bible stunt was pretty much the opposite.

Parties pick Vice Presidents, and they're not bad at it

Seth Masket

May 18, 20205 min read

Parties pick Vice Presidents, and they're not bad at it

The VP nominee process looks a lot like the one party reformers have been pushing for the presidency

Is the Coronavirus a Threat to American Democracy?

Matthew Green

May 5, 20205 min read

Is the Coronavirus a Threat to American Democracy?

Despite some alarmist headlines, there’s good reason to think American democracy will survive the pandemic.

The Extremely Visible Primary for the Vice Presidential Nomination

The Staff

May 1, 202010 min read

The Extremely Visible Primary for the Vice Presidential Nomination

Azari and Masket look at an unusually public campaign for the vice presidential slot and what that tells us about parties.

It's about the fundamentals, whatever those will be

Seth Masket

Apr 22, 20204 min read

It's about the fundamentals, whatever those will be

We can be confident voters will hold Trump accountable for the fundamentals. We just don't know what those fundamentals are yet.

Will the coronavirus affect this year’s presidential election?

Matthew Green

Mar 6, 20204 min read

Will the coronavirus affect this year’s presidential election?

Three ways that the coronavirus epidemic could have electoral consequences.

Hans Noel

Mar 4, 20203 min read

Is the Party Deciding?

After Joe Biden won the South Carolina primary, a lot of power players in the Democratic Party have come to his aid. Rivals Pete...

The Iowa Caucuses look crazy from a distance, but you should see them up close...

Hans Noel

Feb 5, 202014 min read

The Iowa Caucuses look crazy from a distance, but you should see them up close...

This year, I took a group of Georgetown's best students to Iowa to see the nation's first caucuses unfold. (I'm taking groups to New...

Impeachment fits Trump's populist strategy perfectly.

Hans Noel

Dec 19, 20192 min read

Impeachment fits Trump's populist strategy perfectly.

Donald Trump’s electoral appeal is populist. It is populist in the specific sense in which Cas Mudde and Cristobal Rovira Kaltwasser...

Not all Democratic primary voters are as “woke” as your Twitter feed

The Staff

Dec 3, 20194 min read

Not all Democratic primary voters are as “woke” as your Twitter feed

Many engaged Democrats debate the merits of the large field of presidential candidates on social media, and this conversation can...

Seth Masket

Nov 25, 20192 min read

Approval ratings and vote shares

Using approval ratings to predict vote shares finds that the odds are difficult for Trump's reelection, but not prohibitive.