MISCHIEFS OF FACTION

Reflections on Parties and Their Place in Politics

The Speaker Fight through the Eyes of Lauren Boebert

Seth Masket

Jan 7, 20234 min read

The Speaker Fight through the Eyes of Lauren Boebert

Lauren Boebert had an awesome week, and not many people in the House did. She seemed to know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em.

Did Republican-Leaning Polls "Flood the Zone" in 2022?

The Staff

Dec 15, 20224 min read

Did Republican-Leaning Polls "Flood the Zone" in 2022?

2022 saw a rise in Republican-leaning pollsters as Election Day approached, which may have biased some aggregate forecasts.

Seth Masket

Nov 13, 20222 min read

The States Swing Both Ways

Some states voted a lot more Democratic in 2022 than they did in 2020, and some voted a lot more Republican. Is this unusual?

These Two Big Unknowns Make the 2022 Midterms Unusually Unpredictable

Jonathan M. Ladd

Nov 4, 20222 min read

These Two Big Unknowns Make the 2022 Midterms Unusually Unpredictable

No one knows if Trump coalition will turnout. And no one knows whether Dobbs will disrupt the usual midterm backlash

Seth Masket

Nov 2, 20224 min read

Tomorrow’s Narratives Today!

We don't know the election results yet, but we know what pundits are going to say.

Matthew Green

Oct 5, 20223 min read

Assessing the “Commitment to America”

Like other congressional party platforms, it isn’t likely to influence the election -- but it does serve other purposes.

Are the Forecast Models just plain Wrong?

Seth Masket

Aug 24, 20224 min read

Are the Forecast Models just plain Wrong?

In 2022, what traditional forecast models are telling is wildly different from what everything else is telling us. Here's why.

Republicans Doing Normal Party Stuff in Colorado

Seth Masket

Jul 6, 20225 min read

Republicans Doing Normal Party Stuff in Colorado

Something interesting happened in last week's primary elections in Colorado. In several key races, the Republican Party seemed to rally...

Matthew Green

Jun 2, 20223 min read

Predicting election "waves"

Things look good for Republicans running for Congress. But it's still too early to say if 2022 will be a GOP "wave" election.

A Really Rough Forecast for Democrats. Probably.

Seth Masket

May 19, 20224 min read

A Really Rough Forecast for Democrats. Probably.

Democrats are completely screwed or maybe not depending on what economic measure you use.

The Staff

May 13, 20223 min read

District pork or Trump loyalty? West Virginia primary shows what Republican voters value most.

By Jeffrey Lazarus and Jennifer Victor Which matters more in Republican electoral politics today–loyalty to Trump or loyalty to...

Do congressional party platforms matter?

Matthew Green

Mar 30, 20222 min read

Do congressional party platforms matter?

Election-year minority party agendas are important, but not for the reasons most people think.

Matthew Green

Mar 24, 20223 min read

Trump’s unusual endorsement game

Trump’s atypical approach to endorsing election candidates shows who his endorsements are really for: himself.

Matthew Green

Feb 22, 20224 min read

The continuing war against Liz Cheney

Why did GOP leaders commit the risky move of endorsing Cheney’s primary challenger? And what does it tell us about the GOP?

Seth Masket

Dec 28, 20214 min read

An Early Midterm Forecast

A reasonable guess is that Democrats will lose around 25 House seats in 2022. But there's a lot of uncertainty in that model.

Why both political parties care so much about Virginia

Matthew Green

Oct 25, 20213 min read

Why both political parties care so much about Virginia

Politicians want to know what next year’s elections will bring – and create a narrative that helps them in those elections.