Seth Masket
The Speaker Fight through the Eyes of Lauren Boebert
Lauren Boebert had an awesome week, and not many people in the House did. She seemed to know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em.
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MISCHIEFS OF FACTION
Reflections on Parties and Their Place in Politics
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The Staff
- Dec 15, 2022
- 4 min
Did Republican-Leaning Polls "Flood the Zone" in 2022?
2022 saw a rise in Republican-leaning pollsters as Election Day approached, which may have biased some aggregate forecasts.
Seth Masket
- Nov 13, 2022
- 2 min
The States Swing Both Ways
Some states voted a lot more Democratic in 2022 than they did in 2020, and some voted a lot more Republican. Is this unusual?
Jonathan M. Ladd
- Nov 4, 2022
- 2 min
These Two Big Unknowns Make the 2022 Midterms Unusually Unpredictable
No one knows if Trump coalition will turnout. And no one knows whether Dobbs will disrupt the usual midterm backlash
Seth Masket
- Nov 2, 2022
- 4 min
Tomorrow’s Narratives Today!
We don't know the election results yet, but we know what pundits are going to say.
Matthew Green
- Oct 5, 2022
- 3 min
Assessing the “Commitment to America”
Like other congressional party platforms, it isn’t likely to influence the election -- but it does serve other purposes.
Seth Masket
- Aug 24, 2022
- 4 min
Are the Forecast Models just plain Wrong?
In 2022, what traditional forecast models are telling is wildly different from what everything else is telling us. Here's why.
Seth Masket
- Jul 6, 2022
- 5 min
Republicans Doing Normal Party Stuff in Colorado
Something interesting happened in last week's primary elections in Colorado. In several key races, the Republican Party seemed to rally...
Matthew Green
- Jun 2, 2022
- 3 min
Predicting election "waves"
Things look good for Republicans running for Congress. But it's still too early to say if 2022 will be a GOP "wave" election.
Seth Masket
- May 19, 2022
- 4 min
A Really Rough Forecast for Democrats. Probably.
Democrats are completely screwed or maybe not depending on what economic measure you use.
The Staff
- May 13, 2022
- 3 min
District pork or Trump loyalty? West Virginia primary shows what Republican voters value most.
By Jeffrey Lazarus and Jennifer Victor Which matters more in Republican electoral politics today–loyalty to Trump or loyalty to...
Matthew Green
- Mar 30, 2022
- 2 min
Do congressional party platforms matter?
Election-year minority party agendas are important, but not for the reasons most people think.
Matthew Green
- Mar 24, 2022
- 3 min
Trump’s unusual endorsement game
Trump’s atypical approach to endorsing election candidates shows who his endorsements are really for: himself.
Matthew Green
- Feb 22, 2022
- 4 min
The continuing war against Liz Cheney
Why did GOP leaders commit the risky move of endorsing Cheney’s primary challenger? And what does it tell us about the GOP?
Seth Masket
- Dec 28, 2021
- 4 min
An Early Midterm Forecast
A reasonable guess is that Democrats will lose around 25 House seats in 2022. But there's a lot of uncertainty in that model.
Matthew Green
- Oct 25, 2021
- 3 min
Why both political parties care so much about Virginia
Politicians want to know what next year’s elections will bring – and create a narrative that helps them in those elections.
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