Seth Masket
Approval ratings and vote shares
Using approval ratings to predict vote shares finds that the odds are difficult for Trump's reelection, but not prohibitive.
MISCHIEFS OF FACTION
Reflections on Parties and Their Place in Politics
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The Staff
- Nov 22, 2019
- 5 min
India’s Ayodhya Verdict Threatens Democracy, not Secularism
India's Supreme Court ruled in favor of a Hindu god in the country's most famous religious dispute. Why is there so little protest?
Matthew Green
- Nov 21, 2019
- 4 min
House Republicans are drawing from the minority party playbook
Republicans' defense of presidential conduct and complaints about unfair proceedings are par for the course for a House minority party.
The Staff
- Nov 20, 2019
- 4 min
When Trump’s coattails just weren't enough
In the recent KY-GOV race, Bevin only won among Trump supporters, while Beshear made inroads among various parts of the population.
Jennifer N. Victor
- Nov 13, 2019
- 4 min
A simple model of political engagement
In a chaotic, polarized, upsetting political environment, add value to discourse by engaging as a consumer, observer, and producer.
Seth Masket
- Nov 12, 2019
- 4 min
Who gets the nomination will tell us a lot about how strong the party is
What would each nominee tell us about the strengths of the party?
The Staff
- Nov 11, 2019
- 6 min
Why don’t more than 5 million Americans have proper congressional representation?
by Julia Marin Hellwege In the United States, today, over 5 million Americans don’t have access to proper congressional representation...
Gregory Koger
- Nov 8, 2019
- 4 min
Sorry, Wisconsin, the Presidential Election Could be a Blowout
President Trump's net approval is negative in 34 of 51 states + DC, totaling 391 Electoral College votes.
The Staff
- Nov 6, 2019
- 4 min
Don’t read too much into last week’s impeachment vote
Despite not getting one Republican to back their impeachment inquiry, House Democrats shouldn’t lose all hope of GOP support later on.
The Staff
- Nov 4, 2019
- 4 min
What Tunisia’s Elections Mean for Women
Women's representation dropped dramatically following the last election. But it's not because Tunisians suddenly became more conservative.
Julia Azari
- Nov 4, 2019
- 7 min
Impeachment won't answer the questions we need to ask
So, the House has voted to open an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. In practice, this means that more of the hearings will be...
The Staff
- Oct 31, 2019
- 5 min
How can we improve Native American representation in Congress?
In the first of two posts about Native American representation, Dr. Julia Marin Hellwege explains how the complex status of Native...
Gregory Koger
- Oct 29, 2019
- 5 min
Gender, Scandal, and Exit--Katie Hill's Retirement in Perspective
The Hill resignation is not an isolated incident. Chasing female legislators from Congress based on their husband's behavior is a tradition.
Amy Erica Smith
- Oct 29, 2019
- 4 min
Will Chile's Protests Turn Out Like Brazil's? Not Necessarily.
Massive protests in Chile echo Brazil's crisis since 2013. Luckily for President Piñera, the partisan environment is very different.
Matthew Green
- Oct 21, 2019
- 4 min
Where GOP support for Trump is weakest
Two recent congressional resolutions suggest that certain Republicans are less than enthusiastic about the president.
The Staff
- Oct 11, 2019
- 4 min
Maybe It’s Easier to Be Green in 2019
Green parties, once scrappy and disorganized, are making major gains across Europe. Here's why it's happening, and why it matters.
Gregory Koger
- Oct 11, 2019
- 3 min
Why Trump Wants A House Vote on Impeachment
If the GOP can keep the first vote mostly party-line, it fosters the impression that impeachment will fail in the Senate.
Seth Masket
- Oct 4, 2019
- 3 min
Hey republic-not-a-democracy folks: It's your time to shine
If the idea of a "republic" means anything, it's that winning an election doesn't exempt you from American laws or values.
The Staff
- Oct 3, 2019
- 4 min
How does changing control of Congress affect the fortunes of lobbying firms?
When a party loses power in the House, lobbying firms associated with that party lose revenue. It's different with the Senate.
Matthew Green
- Oct 1, 2019
- 4 min
Why More Members of Congress Might (Eventually) Support Impeachment
History suggests that three “inside the Beltway” factors can convince reluctant lawmakers to support presidential impeachment.